AN ALTERNATE UNIVERSE: How the politics of vaccine mandates might have played out if Trump had won

On Monday, November 9, 2020, six days after Election Day, Pfizer announced that its COVID vaccine was 90% effective.

Imagine if the announcement had come one week before, (i.e., the day before election day), and the boost from the COVID vaccine announcement turned narrow losses in Nevada, Arizona, Wisconsin, and Georgia into narrow victories for President Trump, enough to re-elect him with 275 electoral votes.

Here’s one alternative universe, an interview conducted September 1, 2021, with the President of Blue State University.

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Reporter: With the Delta variant sweeping over the country, Red State University just announced that all of its students would need to be vaccinated, or get a religious or medical exemption, in order to stay enrolled at Red State U. Same goes for all employees, or their jobs would be terminated. Are you considering such a policy at Blue State U?

President, Blue State University: No. We have discussed it, but it’s not something we would do. We believe in fundamental rights and liberties. People ought to have control over their own bodies. People who want to be vaccinated should be vaccinated. People who don’t want to be vaccinated have the right not to be vaccinated. Period. It’s that simple.

Reporter: President Trump has been taking a lot of heat for his mishandling of this epidemic. He says that if everyone just got vaccinated with the amazing American vaccines developed in record time under his watch, we would all be better off. Many people are calling this a pandemic of the unvaccinated. What about their argument that the unvaccinated can serve as carriers of the virus and threaten the health and welfare of the campus community?

President, BSU: I’m vaccinated, and as a 60-year-old, I think that’s the rational choice for me. The vaccines are excellent, but they come with risks and side effects that also impact the health and welfare of people getting vaccinated. Look, these vaccines were hurried through development, justifiably so given the pandemic, but the vaccines have serious side effects, and data shows that the vaccines aren’t all that effective against the new Delta variant anyway. Particularly for students, vaccines may do more harm than good. The side effects of the vaccines tend to be worse with younger people who have better immune systems, and younger people are at less risk from the disease. The death rate for college students from COVID is less than 1 in 10,000, far less than that for students without serious underlying medical conditions. The science just does not support mandatory vaccines, and we have to follow the science.

Moreover, many of our students have already been infected, and studies around the globe show that natural immunity is at least as good as the best of the vaccines. A study out of Israel shows that previously infected people are 13 times less likely to get the Delta variant than people vaccinated with the Pfizer vaccine. How could we justify requiring those students to be vaccinated, when they probably have the best immunity on campus? Those vaccines ought to be given to people who need them, whether you’re talking about elderly folks in the US who would benefit from a booster shot, or people all around the world who don’t yet have access to COVID vaccines. Here at BSU, we’re committed to safety, but we’re also committed to knowledge and learning. We’re a university after all.

Reporter: But –

President, BSU: Furthermore, even if the science showed that the vaccines were tremendously effective and didn’t have serious side effects, neither of which is the case, what about the principle of the matter? The ACLU has said its fight against mandatory vaccinations is one of the defining issues of our time. There’s a reason students are protesting against mandatory vaccination policies and the #vaccinerape tag is trending. As an aside, I can’t tell you how great it is to see students so passionately exercising their civil rights. The NAACP also calls this a critical civil rights issue. Black Americans are substantially less likely to have been vaccinated than white Americans. How could we in good conscience mandate vaccines when that policy would have a disparate impact on minority communities? It is de facto segregation, a return to Jim Crow-era laws. Imagine the damage that a city-wide mandatory vaccination policy would do in the Black community. Fortunately, I can’t imagine New York passing laws requiring mandatory vaccination or otherwise preventing people from going into a grocery store, but we’re starting to see those policies proposed in some cities in this country and throughout the world. I can’t say whether such policies are racist in intent, but they certainly would be racist in outcome. Look, there’s a thin line separating us from autocratic government overreach. Take a look at what’s happening in Australia right now, it’s crazy. If you don’t defend your principles, you’ll soon have no principles to defend.

Reporter: Do you think this is all political? I mean, the day after the election, Democrats around the country suggested that Pfizer’s announcement of a successful vaccine swung the election, and charged that the timing was purely political. The Democrat-controlled House of Representatives is investigating ties between Pfizer and Trump. Now the administration has announced they are buying 500 million Pfizer doses for donation worldwide, which has raised a lot of suspicions about quid pro quo and renewed calls for another impeachment. The percentage of Democrats who said they were willing to be vaccinated dropped from -

President, BSU: Look, this should not be a Democrat or Republican issue. It’s a question of science and basic human liberties, at least it is for me.

Reporter: I understand that, but what about on the other side? For example, the Governor of neighboring Red State is encouraging businesses to require vaccinations for employees. He says businesses have a right to run their business the way they see fit, and doesn’t see how anyone could argue with trying to save lives.

President, BSU: I don’t want to get into that, but it does seem that ethical and scientific considerations sometimes get swept under the rug when politics are involved. It’s unfortunate. But I can assure you, that will never happen here at BSU.